Europe is making once-unimaginable decisions to counter Putin's aggression
CNN | Whatever the final outcome of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has accomplished one thing: Europe's security landscape has been profoundly transformed, and things will never be the same again.
Decisions have been made across the continent, most notably within the European Union, that would have been inconceivable just a few weeks ago. Brussels went further in its drive to become a geopolitical power in its own right in a matter of days than it had in decades.
The horror of war coming to Europe has brought the EU's 27 member states together, as the group approved not just the toughest sanctions package ever, but also committed to buy and deliver weaponry to the Ukrainians.
The EU has historically been split on how much central control Brussels should have over foreign policy. This has hampered the EU's lofty global objectives, as policy proposals have been toned down or simply vetoed in negotiations. According to data conducted by the House of Commons in the United Kingdom, the vast majority of EU member states that are also NATO members have failed to meet their 2% military spending objective for well over a decade.
"The Ukraine crisis has broken the notion that European peace and stability come for free," a senior European diplomat told CNN. "Geopolitics appeared distant when there was no serious threat. On our border, there is currently a conflict. We now understand that we must pay our debts and work together."
On January 28, 2014, in Kiev, Ukraine, a woman walks by a tent flying the European Union and Ukrainian flags on Independence Square.
On January 28, 2014, in Kiev, Ukraine, a woman walks by a tent flying the European Union and Ukrainian flags on Independence Square.
Europe has awoken from its slumber, and it isn't just because of Putin's bullying. Officials had taken note of US President Joe Biden's leadership role in coordinating the West's response in meetings with peers, according to the diplomat.
"What would have happened if Biden had not been in the White House at the time? This is a major concern in European capitals. No one believes Trump would have handled the situation well, and we may see him or someone like him again in a few years. That effectively means we must assume we are alone "Added the diplomat.
Germany has made the most significant and symbolic shift in the last several days. The EU's wealthiest and perhaps most powerful member state revealed plans to more than double defense spending, with a budget of $100 billion planned in 2022.
For obvious historical reasons, most German politicians — and a number of European politicians — were uneasy with the concept of the country having a major military presence not long ago.
The crisis in Ukraine has changed everything once again.
"Based on recent conversations, most European leaders now appear to be comfortable with a massive German army if it is firmly anchored within the EU," the diplomat says, noting that just a few months ago, putting the words EU and army in the same sentence would have sparked outrage in most European capitals.
A cynic would believe that Europe's unity and decisiveness are the results of a one-of-a-kind crisis and once-in-a-generation security danger.
Multiple European and NATO officials, though, told CNN that there is no way for Europe to just return to the status quo.
In a video conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appears on a screen.
In a video conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appears on a screen.
If Ukraine falls, Russia's territorial border with the European Union will have been greatly increased by a hostile Russia.
However, if it holds fast and forces Russian troops out, a wounded and unpredictable Putin will sit in the Kremlin and brood. And, as Fiona Hill, a former White House adviser on Russia, told Politico this week when asked if Putin would use nuclear weapons, she said, "Yes, he would."
Even now, a senior Brussels official told CNN, its member nations believe Russian influence to be too near for comfort. "Finland and Russia have a large geographic boundary. The Romanian and Russian navies share the Black Sea. He went into Ukraine after months of people claiming he wouldn't. This is a truly terrifying situation."
According to the official, during the previous week, "Because Europe has been irrevocably changed, decisions that would have taken years were made in a matter of days. We simply don't have time for apathy or inaction any longer."
Another significant movement behind the scenes in Brussels is the stance of the EU's so-called "neutral nations" (Austria, Ireland, Finland, and Sweden). Even if they are politically associated with the EU and its worldwide partners, these countries believe themselves to be militarily non-aligned.
"I think we now recognize that just because you claim to be neutral and not a member of NATO doesn't mean you're secure," a senior EU foreign policy adviser told CNN.
One of the key reasons for the unusually well-coordinated Western response, particularly in Europe, is that the EU and NATO have performed well. This, according to officials from both organizations, is because, for the first time in their memories, both institutions stuck to their competencies and operated in lockstep.
On March 2, 2022, firefighters struggle to put out a fire in a complex of buildings housing the Kharkiv regional SBU security service and the regional police in Kharkiv, which was purportedly hit during recent Russian shelling.
On March 2, 2022, firefighters struggle to put out a fire in a complex of buildings housing the Kharkiv regional SBU security service and the regional police in Kharkiv, which was purportedly hit during recent Russian shelling.
Brussels has resisted leveraging the situation to advocate for an EU army, which has historically resulted in acrimonious disagreements among member states. Some feared it would weaken NATO and make Europe less safe, while others worried it would be used to promote a certain image of Europe as a federal state by those in favor.
Most people now accept that there will be no Brexit, according to a government official from one of the EU's neutral member states "An EU force has a distinct edge. Economic sanctions are our most powerful weapon, while NATO can handle the political and military approach."
They went on to say that "for the time being, the most important thing is to ensure that the relationship between the EU and NATO continues to operate effectively" in the coming months, describing the joint reaction to the Ukraine crisis as a "blueprint" for the future.
In just a few days, Europe's thinking on military, security, and foreign policy has advanced by light-years. It is now waking up from a decades-long delusion that the security given by a linked globe would prevent conflict from erupting and that, in the worst-case scenario, America would handle it.
Whatever way this crisis concludes, there will be many hard months ahead. And if Europe is to emerge stronger and safer as a result of them, it must build on the gains made in recent weeks.
If it fails to do so and reverts to wishful thinking, the continent may discover that the next problem it faces cannot be solved by rapidly putting sanctions in place and throwing money to a third party, as it did with Ukraine. And this is especially true if the crisis occurs within the bloc's boundaries.